What this solves
The convention wisdom about gambling budgets ("only bring what you can afford to lose") doesn't tell you what you can afford in time. A 200× bankroll at a $25 blackjack table and a 200× bankroll at a $5 slot machine feel like the same amount, but they will last completely different lengths of time, with completely different emotional arcs.
This calculator computes the expected loss per hour, the "time-to-zero" if losses run at the expected rate (a low-confidence estimate), and the more useful "hours of silence zone" — the realistic range, accounting for variance, in which your budget will likely last. If the math says you will likely lose $50/hour at blackjack but variance can swing that by ±$200 in any given hour, you now know your budget isn't really "until you run out," it's "until the random walk crosses the floor."
The calculator
Defaults set when game changes. Slots ≈ 600 spins/hr, table games 60–80 hands/hr, video poker 500–800.
Expected loss per hour
Std-dev per hour (variance band)
Hours of silence zone (≈)
Risk-of-bust probability in 1hr
How to read the result
- Expected loss per hour is the long-run average. Across an hour, you'll likely lose this much on average; in any given hour, you might lose half that or twice that.
- Std-dev per hour is the variance band. Most hours are within ±1 std-dev of the expected loss. Slots have the largest relative std-dev (heavily skewed outcomes); blackjack has the tightest.
- Hours of silence zone is the realistic duration your bankroll will last, using bankroll ÷ expected loss as the midpoint and ±1 std-dev as the range. Treat it as "probably between X and Z hours, with Y as the median."
- Risk of bust in 1hr is the probability of being down your entire bankroll in a single hour. Above ~25%, you're playing too big; below ~5%, you're playing too small (and may not be having fun).
- The model assumes perfect basic strategy for BJ 3:2 (0.4% HE). Without basic strategy, HE rises to 1.5–2.5% — use the 6:5 row for an honest read of "casual play."
Limitations
- The model assumes constant flat-betting. In real play, players escalate ("martingale chasing"), change games, or pause. Variable bet sizing dramatically increases expected loss beyond the calculator's number.
- Slot HE varies wildly — penny slots 7–12%, $5 slots 5–8%, high-limit slots 3–6%. The 9% default is an honest Strip average, but individual machines can be ±3% of that.
- "Hands per hour" varies by table. A crowded blackjack table with a slow dealer runs 50 hands/hr; an empty one runs 90. Slots account for "auto-spin" vs button-press play; the 600-spin default is the midpoint.
- The "bust probability" assumes a normal distribution, which is a fair approximation for blackjack/craps/baccarat but a poor one for slots. For slots, treat the variance range as qualitative.
- The model does not include comps (free drinks, hotel nights, food credit). Those can offset 5–25% of theoretical loss, depending on tier. See Player's Card Tier Optimizer.
FAQ
Why does blackjack 6:5 look so much worse than 3:2?
Because it is. A 6:5 blackjack game pays $12 on a $20 blackjack instead of $15 — that's a 20% haircut on the bonus that makes the game beatable to the player's edge math. Combined with other rule changes (dealer hits soft 17, no doubling after split), the HE goes from 0.4% to 2.0%, a 5× increase. There is no bankroll that makes 6:5 better than 3:2; it is simply a worse game.
What does "hours of silence zone" actually mean?
It's the realistic range your bankroll will survive under realistic variance, not the time-to-zero under expected loss. Example: $200 bankroll, $10 BJ 3:2 = expected loss $2.80/hr, std-dev ~$33/hr. So your "silence zone" is 200/2.80 ± 33/2.80 = 37–115 hours. That's not "37 to 115 hours of play"; it's "with a 70% confidence, your session will last somewhere in that range." Variance eats the math; this models the spread.
Is video poker really the best game in the casino?
Full-pay 9/6 Jacks or Better (1 coin, 9/6 payout, no gimmicks) has an HE of 0.46% with optimal play — the lowest house edge on the Strip floor other than a few obscure pai gow variants. The catch: optimal play requires memorizing the strategy table, and most Strip "9/6" machines are short-pay versions (8/5 or 7/5). Check the payout chart on the screen before you sit down.
What's a reasonable bankroll for a 4-hour session?
A standard rule is 50–100× your average bet for a 4-hour table session. So if you bet $25/hand, bring $1,250–$2,500 to absorb variance. Most visitors bring less and end up either reloading or quitting early. The honest math says either: bring enough to absorb variance, or play at smaller stakes.
Sources
- Wizard of Odds house edge calculations — wizardofodds.com/games/, 2024–2026 updates
- Las Vegas Advisor expected loss and bankroll guidance, 2024–2026 reader surveys
- Nevada Gaming Control Board "Win" and "Drop" statistics 2024–2026 (Strip avg slot HE)